Issue 3November 20267 min read

Three products. One dog.

The numbers, read for sales. Loki read them for snacks >

01 · The number
GTA new homes, September

49 Months of high-rise supply

That’s how long it would take to sell the GTA’s 12,909 unsold new high-rise homes at the past year’s pace. Low-rise has 7,048 left: about 11 months.

High-rise 49

Low-rise 11

0 12 24 36 48 months

What it means for salesNo one launches into four years of competing supply. Expect high-rise launches to stay on the shelf, and the units that do move to move at a discount.Loki’s take: 49 months is 343 in dog years. He is not waiting.

02 · The chart
GTA resale by product, October

Detached is holding up best. It has a yard.

Across GTA resale in October, detached homes slipped least on both counts: sales and the benchmark price each down 4.4%. Towns and condo apartments are softening together, with sales down about 11% and 10% and benchmarks down about 7%.

Sales, year over year Benchmark price, year over year

What it means for salesA new launch is priced against the resale home down the street. For condos and towns, that comp is about 7% cheaper than a year ago. Detached has more room.Loki’s take: of course the ones with yards are fine.

Condo aptTownsDetached

0%−3%−6%−9%−12%

Condo apartments: sales −10.4% year over year−10.4% Condo apartments: benchmark −7.3% year over year−7.3%

Towns: sales −11.0% year over year−11.0% Towns: benchmark −6.6% year over year−6.6%

Detached: sales −4.4% year over year−4.4% Detached: benchmark −4.4% year over year−4.4%

See the data

GTA resale, October 2026	Sales	Sales, yr/yr	Benchmark	Benchmark, yr/yr	Months of inventory
Condo apartments	1,385	−10.4%	$521,600	−7.3%	5.8
Towns	933	−11.0%	$662,200	−6.6%	3.9
Detached	2,693	−4.4%	$1,194,200	−4.4%	4.4

TRREB Market Watch, October 2026. Condo apartments stand in for high-rise. Months of inventory is active listings divided by October sales.

03 · High-rise
GTHA new condos, Q3

The buyer is a fund, not a family. Or a dog.

GTHA new condo sales hit 760 in Q3, double a year ago but still 78% below the 10-year Q3 average. 339 of them (45%) were bulk purchases by investment groups. 648 (85%) were in finished buildings. Pre-construction sold just 60 units, the 12th straight quarter of year-over-year declines.

What it means for salesThe presale is on pause. The deal that closes today is a discounted block of finished suites. A launch plan built on 70% presales needs a different first chapter.Loki’s take: funds don’t throw tennis balls. He has questions.

04 · Towns
New (September) and resale (October)

New towns sell. Resale towns roll over.

New: more than half of September’s 820 new low-rise sales were semis and townhomes. The new low-rise benchmark is $1,246,764, down 13.3% in a year, before the HST rebate.

Resale: GTA townhouse sales fell 11.0% in October to 933, and the townhouse benchmark dropped 6.6% to $662,200, the biggest decline of any ground-level home.

Resale, October	Sales	Avg. price
Freehold towns	508	$905,385
Condo towns	425	$683,728

What it means for salesThe new town’s real competitor is the resale town down the street, and it got cheaper this year. Price against that comp, not last year’s launch.Loki’s take: small yards are still yards.

05 · Detached
GTA resale, October

The 416 held. Good boy, 416.

The GTA sold 2,693 detached homes in October, down 4.4% from a year ago. The detached benchmark is $1,194,200, down 4.4%. The split is geographic: City of Toronto detached sales edged up 0.5% while the surrounding regions fell 6.2%.

What it means for salesThe detached buyer hasn’t gone anywhere in the city. In the 905, a new detached home is competing with resale that’s selling slower and cheaper. The rebate has to close that gap.Loki’s take: he has never been to the 905 and has no plans to.

416 · City of Toronto +0.5% 741 sales
Avg. price $1,603,886, −1.2%

905 · Surrounding regions −6.2% 1,952 sales
Avg. price $1,199,303, −4.7%

Detached sales, October 2026 vs October 2025. TRREB Market Watch.

06 · Policy
The HST rebate

The rebate works, where it fits.

Ontario new home sales rose 61% in Q3 to 7,914, with nearly 3,000 credited to the enhanced HST rebate that began April 1, according to an industry-commissioned report. High-rise is lagging because of the program’s construction-start and completion-date rules, and BILD is asking for changes.

What it means for salesWatch the rules, not the rates. If the eligibility dates move, high-rise launch calendars will move with them.Loki’s take: he would like a rebate on treats. Request pending.

07 · The call
What I’m watching

Trend call

The shortage is being built now.

Urbanation says the supply pipeline is drying up, setting the GTHA up for a significant shortage by the end of the decade. Today’s 49 months of condo supply is tomorrow’s gap: the projects that start in the next two years will deliver into it. Loki has been told. He is unbothered.

08 · Elsewhere
Calgary, October (resale)

Even Calgary splits by product.

Calgary sales fell 15.3% year over year in October to 1,592, and months of supply rose to 3.88. The overall benchmark held at $564,200. Underneath, apartments fell 7.9% and row homes 5.1%, while detached and semis held flat.

What it means for the GTAEven in one of Canada’s strongest markets, the softness starts in multi-family. The split isn’t a Toronto story. It’s a product story.Loki’s take: he hears Calgary has room to run. Open to a site visit.

Benchmark price, year over year

Detached $735,100 −0.7%

Semi $685,200 +0.8%

Row $407,500 −5.1%

Apartment $288,800 −7.9%

Bars show the size of the decline. CREB benchmark prices, October 2026 vs October 2025.

Sources
Every number, linked